Apr 8, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) hits a home run against the Atlanta Braves in the fifth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images Brett Davis
In theory, DH should be the most replaceable spot in the lineup. In reality, Kyle Schwarber has hit 136 home runs in his first 476 games with the Phillies and become one of the key voices in the clubhouse since putting on red pinstripes. It's almost impossible to imagine him not on the Phillies in 2026.
Back in January, On Pattison looked at what it might cost to extend Schwarber before his contract year. Using the two-year/$37 million contract that Joc Pederson had recently received from the Texas Rangers in free agency, we projected a two-year/$47 million extension for Schwarber. That now feels light, though.
Schwarber is off to another tremendous start, as he's homered five times in his first 11 games of 2025. When you watch this team on a day-to-day basis, you conclude that Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler are the two best players. But there's a real case to be made that Schwarber is No. 3, and that's even with him being on a team that includes Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez, among others.
What's also happened early in 2025 is that the Toronto Blue Jays have signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a 14-year/$500 million contract extension. That means he won't become a free agent next offseason, so one of the scenarios that some Phillies fans had in mind for a post-Schwarber Era is now off the board.
Kyle Tucker is off to a red-hot start with the Chicago Cubs, and is only 28 years old. He's going to be the top position player on the market next offseason, and it's not hard to talk yourself into someone that's a Gold Glove right fielder — in addition to being an offensive force — fitting in nicely with the Phillies. The problem is every major market team is going to feel the same way, and if Guerrero got $500 million with no deferrals without even testing free agency, it's entirely possible Tucker could get in excess of $600 million.
Perhaps there is something to be said for allowing this year to play out and reassessing what to do with Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto — who is also in a contract year — after the season. If the Phillies fall short again in the postseason, you may want to have the ability to shake things up. It's very hard, though, to imagine shaking things up going well if that includes letting Schwarber walk in free agency.
Kyle Schwarber is a double away from the cycle 💥
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If anything, Schwarber is actually getting better. He's thinner and healthier than he was two seasons ago. After hitting .207 over his first two seasons with the Phillies, he's hit .251 since the start of the 2024 campaign. And he's remained an elite power hitter that draws walks at an extraordinary clip. You may not think of DH as being valuable, but when you consider that it's helped Schwarber to stay healthier, his long-term outlook as a DH is much better than it was when he was playing left field at a level that defensive metrics suggested was among the worst in the sport.
So with all this said, what would be a fair price for a new Schwarber deal? A new contract would begin in Schwarber's age-33 season, and outside of Shohei Ohtani, teams tend to be hesitant about how long they tie someone into being their DH. But even if we acknowledge that Christian Walker is a Gold Glove-level first baseman, does anyone think he's a better player than Schwarber? Well, Walker just got a three-year/$60 million deal from the Houston Astros in free agency ahead of his age-34 season. When you consider that, it's probably going to take three years to lock Schwarber up.
Financially, the four-year/$79 million deal the Phillies have had Schwarber on has turned out to be highway robbery for the team. $19.75 million annually isn't going to get it done this time around. How high that number goes annually probably depends on whether A) Schwarber tests free agency and B) whether he's willing to potentially change teams to get the highest dollar figure possible.
How could the Phillies get Schwarber to give up potentially testing the open market? Perhaps by taking the $27.27 million average annual value that Turner's 11-year deal has and offering it to Schwarber over three seasons. We'll round up and call that a three-year/$82 million deal. The guess here is that it would probably take Schwarber testing free agency and getting heavy interest from other clubs — which he likely would — to get a deal like that from the Phillies. But that feels closer to what it would take to re-sign Schwarber now than the two-year/$47 million we projected just a few months ago.
There is, of course, risk in all of this. Wheeler is 34 and signed through the 2027 season. Harper is 32 and under contract through 2031, with the caveat that he's said he would like to play beyond that. Turner will turn 32 in June and is signed through 2033. Nola will also turn 32 in June and is locked up through 2030. Not to mention, good luck finding a better option to catch next year than Realmuto, who will become a free agent ahead of his age-35 season and will probably want multiple years. If you add another multi-year deal in Schwarber on top of that, there's a chance in two or three years that you are a really old, expensive team that isn't as good as you are now.
But what's the alternative, that Schwarber is hitting 40+ home runs for someone else next year and you're left to replace his void both in the lineup and clubhouse? That's the harder scenario to justify right now.
