Aug 12, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) prepares to pitch in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images Katie Stratman
Just as the Phillies' bullpen, led by Jhoan Duran, appears to be rounding into shape, there are questions about a starting rotation that's probably been the best in baseball for much of 2025.
Ranger Suárez was one example of that Tuesday, as he allowed 10 hits and six earned runs over 5 1/3 innings pitched in a 6-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. It could have been even worse, as Suárez exited with the bases loaded and having already allowed five runs, and Joe Ross held the additional damage to just one run, despite allowing two balls to be hit to the warning track.
But it was a troubling outing for Suárez, whose fastball velocity continues to sit around 89 mph. Having such low fastball velocity — this is all relative, of course — leaves you with almost no margin for error in terms of breaking balls and pitch location:
This velocity trendline for Ranger Suarez feels very unsustainable and ominous to me going forward pic.twitter.com/bZxLufbTvO
Suárez was 7-3 with a 2.15 ERA in 13 first-half starts, which earned him All-Star consideration despite the fact that he missed all of April with stiffness in his lower back. But since the second half of the season started, Suárez has a 6.59 ERA in five outings. It's a particularly concerning development considering Suárez posted a 5.65 ERA in the second half of the 2024 season after looking like an NL Cy Young candidate in the first half of the campaign.
The good news for the Phillies is that if they earn a first-round bye, they won't need a No. 4 starter until the NLCS based on how the postseason schedule is laid out this year:
The 2025 MLB Postseason schedule is set. Take a look: pic.twitter.com/YjrITXkPFJ
— Phillies Nation (@PhilliesNation) August 12, 2025
The bad news, though, is that it's not clear that the Phillies have three postseason-caliber starters right now.
In theory, the Phillies have as good of a one-two punch as there is in baseball with Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez, both of whom are chasing Paul Skenes in the NL Cy Young race. But Wheeler had his most recent start pushed back after experiencing right shoulder discomfort. He struck out seven batters in five innings in Sunday's win over the Texas Rangers, but his velocity was down. Rob Thomson told the media in Cincinnati — including Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer — that Wheeler was "feeling good" on Monday, so it appears for now that he will not require an injured list stint. Still, the health of the 35-year-old is worth watching.
Even if Wheeler and Sánchez are healthy, it's not clear who would start in Game 3 of a postseason series for the Phillies right now. Suárez certainly doesn't look like an ideal candidate, and while Jesús Luzardo has been brilliant at times this season, he's got a 4.20 ERA over 24 games for a reason.
Aaron Nola struck out 11 and gave up two runs in 5 2/3 innings pitched for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs Tuesday. That could very well be his final rehab start, and he could return to the Phillies' rotation for the first time since mid-May. But while it would certainly be the best-case scenario for the Phillies if Nola pitches well enough down the stretch to be a key part of their postseason rotation, it's hard to be certain that will be the case considering he had a 6.16 ERA in nine starts before going on the IL.
Pretty much every team in the league would kill to have the rotation problems of the Phillies. But with approximately six weeks left the in the regular season, the biggest strength for the Phillies comes with some serious questions.
