Aug 15, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jhoan Duran (59) is assisted by members of the Phillies' training staff after being hit on the leg by a line drive by Washington Nationals third baseman Paul DeJong (not pictured) during the ninth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Had Jhoan Duran not been hit on the right ankle by a line drive and have to be carted off the field in Friday's 6-2 Phillies win over Washington, this story would never have to be written.
That's because no one would have complained about him being used to close out a win to snap a three-game losing streak, even though it was a non-save situation.
But, that's not what the universe wrought on those of us who are beholden to what happens with this baseball team on a daily basis.
Maybe it was born from the anxiety that came from those initial moments when it looked like Duran had a serious foot injury because he couldn't put weight on it after being struck by a 94 MPH line drive, but the overwhelming response - and not just from fans, but from people in my industry who are paid to discuss the sport - was that Duran shouldn't be pitching in a non-save situation.
My initial reaction was just as visceral the other way. Of course he should be in the game. Closers pitch with a four-run lead these days all the time.
Cracks me up the people asking why Duran was in the game last night...
Like you haven't watched MLB in your life and seen the closer throw in a game, getting work, bc there hasn't been a save situation all week.
This is very normal, everyone...
The same people would complain…
But I sometimes forget that nuance is lost on many, and sometimes we stick to what we know - and that's that closers save games, and if they can't save a particular game, they shouldn't be used.
It's a basic thought line, but it's at least, understandable where it comes from.
See, baseball fans are slaves to statistics, and when the save became an official stat in 1969, it quickly grew into a monster. Within a decade, every team wanted a fireman. A guy that could come in and save the day at the end of a game.
By the 1980s and 1990s, these guys were specialists who only came into games in save situations and wracked up big save numbers.
Remember Bobby Thigpen? Doesn't ring a bell? He once pitched for the Phillies (In 1993, in fact. Pitched in two games in the NLCS against the Braves and two games in the World Series against Toronto). But before he came to Philadelphia, he was a closer for the Chicago White Sox. He racked up a then-record 57 saves for the Pale Hose (that nickname reference is solely for my colleague Tim Kelly, who had never heard it used before I wrote it) in 1990. He never had had more than 33 in any other season.
The 94 win 1990 White Sox had no big number player stats. No 20 homers, no 100 RBI, no 20 wins.
Except Bobby Thigpen, who broke the all-time save record. pic.twitter.com/WnGWBJ5VLO
By 2008, Los Angeles Angels closer Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez set the all-time record with 62 saves, and closers were getting paid bigger contracts based on their save totals, and not necessarily on their performance.
By this point it was clear that the statistic was defining the sport, not providing context about it - which is what a statistic should never do.
But it seeped into the mindset of those who watched the game. Who got the last out mattered far more than who got the first 26 of them.
It wasn't until 2016 when first the Yankees and later the Cleveland Indians after acquiring Andrew Miller in a trade with New York, decided to try using their best reliever in spots other than the ninth inning.
It was a novel idea, but then again, it was a throwback to pre-1969, when there were no saves and relievers just relieved - for multiple innings - and got outs. If the toughest part of the lineup was batting in the seventh inning, the best reliever came in to face them then. He wasn't held until the ninth inning.
Making that chic again about a decade ago was all the rage for a few years. It made managers seem smart. It was the analytics telling them that the most important outs might not be the ninth inning after all.
So, more teams got away from a true ninth inning closer and went to a closer-by-committee format for their bullpen, using their best arms in the highest leverage spots, regardless in what inning that would occur.
Sure, there were still lockdown ninth inning guys who only pitched the last inning, but fewer and fewer were prevalent for that role as the modernization of bullpens continued.
Then came the rule change that changed everything.
Joe Girardi at @KatzJCC awards ceremony, does not like the minimum 3 hitter rule for bullpen
“If the commissioner is listening, it’s the dumbest rule that we’ve ever put in”
“And from what I saw, the games were not sped up” pic.twitter.com/HysvXhhClY
Starting with the 2020 season, when a relief pitcher entered a game, he was required to face a minimum of three batters, unless he got the third out before reaching that minimum.
When that happened, teams needed to adopt new strategies. They no longer wanted to leave the ninth inning to a lesser reliever, even if it was facing a more favorable pocket of hitters, because if that reliever failed on a given night, there was no one to save the day.
Bullpens now needed multiple high-leverage arms, and a closer, again became prevalent in the ninth inning.
But something else also shifted. No longer were closers just coming into games in a save situation. Now, they would come into games in non-save situations as well. Tie-game. Down a run. It was as important to keep games close as it was to get that save.
One of the more interesting scenarios that the analytics told teams was more important than before, was the four-run lead in the ninth inning.
Not a save situation by rule, it was as important as a save situation because, whatever pitcher you put into that spot has to face three hitters. If one or more get on base, suddenly, you are approaching the traditional save situation, and the closer would have to get warm anyway.
What most people don't realize is getting a reliever warm in this era of high velocity pitching, is taxing on an arm even if he's not used in the game.
Considering the odds of a 1-2-3 inning by a lesser reliever aren't great, the closer is likely going to be called on to get warm anyway once there is a runner on base, so why waste a reliever when you can just go to the closer at that point anyway?
The prevalence of closers pitching with a four-run lead is far greater in baseball in the past five seasons than it was in the 51 previous years that saves have been a statistic.
So, to see Duran be called upon with a four-run lead is far more the norm in the sport since the rule change requiring a reliever to face three batters.
I took the time to look up the top five closers in saves after the game to see how many times they came into a game up by four-or-more or down by four-plus runs.
I put it out on X:
I only wasted my time to look up the top five closers in saves and Duran.
Times they came into a game up or down by 4+ runs:
Robert Suarez (SD) - 3 times
Carlos Estevez (KC) - 3 times
Josh Hader (HOU) - 6 times
Andres Munoz (SEA) - 4 times
Trevor Megill (MIL) - 6 times
Jhoan…
Duran had been used in 16 such instances, including Friday. (Friday was the first time with the Phillies. The previous 15 were with the Minnesota Twins.)
And if those numbers for the top guys seem low, consider how many times a team has exactly a four-run lead in the ninth inning or a closer hasn't pitched in nearly a week.
The closers are getting most, if not all of the four-run leads (depending on how much they had been used the prior nights).
Another interesting nugget was shared in the postgame broadcasters round table when Scott Franzke mentioned that Rob Thomson had asked Duran when the Phillies acquired him, what's the longest he can go without pitching. Duran told him four days.
Duran had last pitched on Sunday. He closed both games over the weekend in Texas. Considering he had pitched on back-to-back days, he was unavailable Monday, which is why Orion Kerkering closed out the game in Cincinnati.
The next three games were all Phillies losses. Two of them blowouts. the last, on Thursday, Duran would have pitched had they not coughed up the lead in the seventh inning.
As such, Duran had gone four days without pitching. He was likely coming into the game on Friday regardless of the score.
Yes, the Phillies were getting Jordan Romano loose in the top of the ninth as well, but it's likely that was a just-in-case things really got out of hand - and Duran had been warming up for too long.
The point here is, baseball is not managed like it was 30 years ago. Or 15 years ago. Hell, even six years ago.
It's managed differently now, and how Duran was used on Friday is the new normal in baseball. Get used to it. It will happen again. And again.
