Voting stickers are seen at Fire Station #22, Precinct 96, in Jackson, Miss., on Tuesday, April 1, 2025. (Credit: © Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
As state legislators push for open primaries, new data from Pennsylvania shows a decline in both registered Democrats and Republicans, and an increase in independents.
Pennsylvania has long been a coveted battleground state for elected officials on both sides of the aisle. With a diverse population of both urban and rural communities, the Commonwealth’s 19 electoral votes tend to swing right or left for each presidential election. In 2016, the state voted for President Trump by a 0.72% margin. In 2020, it went to President Biden, and then in 2024, Trump secured the state’s electoral votes again.
In fact, in 2024, Pennsylvania received over 12% of the nation’s political ad spending, all to target the state’s illustrious swing and non-partisan voters. This was a record-breaking feat: Pennsylvania was the only state in a single year to surpass a billion in total ad spending.
A prominent metric to discern a state’s ideological makeup is the number of registered voters in each political party. An analysis done by Politics PA compared current voter registration numbers to headcounts from October, before the presidential election. They found that Democrats have lost almost 4.2% of their registered voters, while Republicans have similarly lost 1.15% of their base.
Independents, on the other hand, have gained almost 0.75%, totaling more than 1.4 million. That’s around 15% of Pennsylvania’s registered voters.
The rise in unaffiliated Pennsylvanians — at the expense of the two major parties — arguably signals a shift in the state’s political climate. Many state officials are noticing the change.
“People are thirsting, craving, yearning for politics that deliver,” said state Rep. Jared Solomon (D-Philadelphia). “The reason that people are disaffiliating with the two major parties is because they don’t feel like the two major parties are delivering.”
Solomon is one of the main advocates in Harrisburg for open primaries. Pennsylvania is one of 10 states to have closed primaries for both major parties, meaning that only individuals officially registered with either party can participate. Research has shown that when primary elections are open to unaffiliated voters, they tend to promote moderate candidates and mitigate the influence of ideological PACs.
Solomon’s proposed bill, which is currently making its way through the state House, would allow unaffiliated voters — but not third-party voters — to participate in either the Democratic or Republican primary. He cited low turnout as one of the biggest issues with closed primaries, to which he said granting a voice to more than a million independents would help increase attendance.
“In terms of building and sustaining a civic fabric, this is sort of a one-stop shop to get it done,” Solomon said.
State Sen. Lisa Boscola (D-Lehigh) said she has been trying to pass an open primary bill for three decades. For her latest go at it, she partnered with Republican Sen. Dan Laughlin (R-Erie) in the previous legislative session. The bill passed in the House, but stalled in the Senate.
She said she plans to reintroduce the bill in this legislative session, and that she and Sen. Laughlin have been working together to gain additional co-sponsors. “It’s getting more traction every day,” Boscola said.
As a legislator who serves a district that is nearly 19% independent, Boscola said she has always prioritized voting on issues over party. She sponsored the bill to eliminate straight-ticket voting that passed in 2019.
“That change was hard to come by, but it came, and I believe this one’s coming,” Boscola said. “I hope it’s before I retire.”
Partisans, who are increasingly seeing part of their base peel off, tend to share different feelings on open primaries. Leaders in local party chapters acknowledged both the challenge and opportunity that an ample independent population provides.
Marjilyn Murray, a Philadelphia Republican Ward Leader, said that many voters could be disaffiliating from the major parties “to make a point if they are not happy with either party.” In Philadelphia, Republicans have lost almost 700 registered voters since October.
But, the first ward leader said that the Philadelphia GOP could focus their messaging and use that base to narrow the under 175,000 gap between Democratic and Republican registrations.
“I would hopefully like to connect with independent voters and bring them on board with the Republicans so that we have the voter registration advantage over the Democrats,” said Murray.
Democrats in Delaware County, which have seen roughly 4% of their base drop off, share similar sentiments. The county’s Democratic Committee chair, Colleen Guiney, said that the decrease in blue voter registration could reflect many dynamics, from voters who moved out of the county to "dissatisfaction with the current way the federal government is operating.”
She said that “drastic” actions on the federal level “make voters feel like their voice isn’t being heard.” Yet, Guiney emphasized that Delco Democrats are “focused on the well-being of all residents, regardless of their party affiliation.”
The inability to vote in primary elections is one of the main reasons centrist voters avoid registering as independent. That’s why party leaders would rather maintain the status quo and include unaffiliated voters in their party through official registration, instead of temporary participation in an open primary.
“I am not for open primaries,” said Murray. “The reason being is that I think it is important for you to be a member of the party of the candidate you are choosing, to make sure that candidate aligns with your ideas and values, and those of the party.”
A group recently filed a lawsuit on behalf of Pennsylvania’s 1.4 million registered independents against closed primaries. In the form of a King’s Bench Petition, which goes directly to the state's highest court, four individuals argued that the current closed primary system is unconstitutional.
The state Supreme Court could decline to accept the petition, and in that case, the plaintiffs could file the action in the Commonwealth Court. The timeline of when a ruling could be made is unclear.
