Apr 27, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) is embraced by right fielder Nick Castellanos (8) after pitching the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Orlando Ramirez
On Pattison's Tim Kelly and Anthony SanFilippo team up to answer your Phillies questions. Let's get to it!
@Philly_Isaac on X: I keep coming back to the Ranger contract situation. Is it worth it for them to trade him at the deadline for bullpen/outfield help? Or keep him for the postseason push? But then you risk letting him leave in the offseason and he certainly will demand a decent contract.
@mdschaeff on X: With Abel so far and Painter coming, could you see the Phillies flipping Luzardo or Ranger for a right handed power bat?
Tim Kelly: These first few questions all pertain to Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo to some extent, but I think they are all worth answering because they hit on slightly different angles.
This one is the easiest answer: No.
After last night's start, Suárez has a 2.20 ERA and eight quality starts in nine outings this season. Even though he missed the first month of the season, he's forcing his way into the All-Star Game discussion. You do risk losing him in the offseason. I expect the Phillies will give him a qualifying offer, which will mean they get back some draft-pick compensation if he departs. And if you made me guess, I'm more inclined to think Suárez will be elsewhere next year. But right now, he's a huge part of your team.
As is Luzardo, and he'll become even more important next year if Suárez does indeed leave in free agency. Outside of two disastrous starts, Luzardo has been great this year. I would keep both for now.
Anthony SanFilippo: Moving on from either at the deadline means you aren't serious about winning in 2025. The Phillies are serious about winning in 2025. So this isn't even a question, you keep both at the deadline. If Suárez leaves in free agency and all you get is draft-pick compensation for him (after a qualifying offer), that's the cost of doing business when you are a championship contender. Sometimes you have to settle for less of a return on a player that had greater value because you went for it. If the Phillies were, say, where the Braves are in the standings, then we'd be having a different discussion.
The other thing to keep in mind is, at least one of these lefties - and you can include Cristopher Sánchez in this discussion - is going to be a high-leverage lefty reliever for you in the playoffs. Suárez pitching as well as he is as a starter is making it more cloudy as to who that will be, since he seemed like the easy choice earlier this year. But the reality is, the Phillies have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to starting pitching right now, and there's no reason to give one of your best to a team that you could eventually face in the playoffs.
I say status quo on your starting pitching at the deadline (except, maybe, Mick Abel, who could be a tradable asset) and figure out other ways to supplement the team.
Ranger Suárez through his first nine starts of the season: 2.20 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 1.7 WAR and eight quality starts.
(@PitchingNinja)
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@Mackyp7 on X: If Ranger & Luzardo keep on the same path, do the Phillies have to reevaluate signing Ranger this offseason? And if so that means moving off Luzardo in the summer? Would love to keep both but if not, interesting to see Phillies intent on keeping Ranger if he is this good.
Tim Kelly: Like I said above, I definitely think that the way things are trending right now, you would give Suárez a qualifying offer. If he declines that — which he likely would — it would mean any team other than the Phillies that signs him would have to surrender draft-pick compensation to sign him. Couple that with his injury history, and it may turn some teams in need of frontline pitching off.
I would feel comfortable giving Suárez like a three-year deal, but I would suspect the Scott Boras client will be aiming for more. And given his injury history, I probably wouldn't meet that asking price, especially given that you will still have two really good lefties in Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez.
But man, Ranger is not making it easy, is he?
Anthony SanFilippo: The only difference in my mind between keeping one of Suárez and Luzardo is age. Luzardo is younger. They both have a history of injuries and durability questions, but when they are healthy, they are lights out. I personally prefer Suárez over Luzardo when it comes to the pitcher profiles, but only slightly. I don't think it's enough of a difference to say they should go out of their way to give Suárez a hefty contract extension and eschew keeping Luzardo beyond this season.
Suárez is going to get paid. And it's likely going to be from a team that views itself as a contender in 2026 but is just a little pitching-needy.
The Phillies can avoid that big contract because they have Luzardo under team control next year.
As Tim said, if Suárez were willing to take a shorter deal or a more team-friendly contract to stay, then you definitely find a way to bring him back. But that's getting more and more improbable with each passing quality start.
@TylerPoitras on X: If the postseason started today, how would you align the rotation?
Tim Kelly: Right now, my quartet would be:
1. Zack Wheeler
2. Ranger Suárez
3. Cristopher Sánchez
4. Jesús Luzardo
But this is definitely subject to change, depending upon how Andrew Painter and Aaron Nola look down the stretch. Right now, you have three lefties, and it's possible you're going to want one of them to pitch out of the bullpen considering you won't have José Alvarado.
Anthony SanFilippo: You need to consider a lot of things ... the opponent ... are you playing a wild card ... or are you the division champ ... who is pitching well at the end of the season ... what injury situations are there, if any ... the schedule ... and who profiles well enough to pitch in relief.
So this isn't as cut and dry as which guys would you go with in the middle of June.
Keep in mind, the way the NL playoff schedule is set, the Phillies possibly wouldn't need a fourth starter until Game 4 of the NLCS. So it's really what three guys would you start with? Wheeler is automatic. From there, it gets strategic.
If Suárez can continue to pitch like he's pitching, I probably keep him in the rotation. But is it for Game 2 of a Wild Card or Game 3/Game 1 of the NLDS? If they win the Division, and it's Game 2 of the NLDS, and it's at home, I could conceivably see them sticking with Sánchez in that spot since he pitches better at Citizens Bank Park, historically.
Although, I look at Sánchez and that devastating changeup and say, how would that play at the back end of a bullpen? Maybe even for multiple innings.
Here's the other thing - Nola will be back. The question is, how effective will he be? If he returns in mid-August and for eight starts looks like the guy who has been a staple of the rotation for the past decade, then he's going to start in the playoffs, and not pitch out of the 'pen. His stuff profiles better as a starter than as a reliever. Now, he may not get a start until the NLCS, and Game 4, for example, but he's going to be in the rotation if he's healthy.
Luzardo is a wild card to me. His last start against the Marlins wasn't all that great. It wasn't as terrible as the Milwaukee and Toronto starts, but it also wasn't as encouraging as the Cubs start either. I need to see him get back to the pre-Brewers consistency before I'm locking him in to a role.
And then there's Painter, who remains a great unknown. His ascension can only jumble this conversation more.
As such, the answer is simple. We just have to wait and see.
Scott Franzke: “You gotta be kidding me the way baseball works out sometimes!”
(@_piccone)
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@ChrisFried78 on X: Does Nick Castellanos now become trade bait at the deadline this season?
Tim Kelly: In a post-Rafael Devers trade world, anything is possible. But as I wrote in my extended look at the situation yesterday, I wouldn't bet on that being what plays out.
First of all, for as much as it's been an uneven season for Castellanos, he's still probably the hitter you feel the best about in your outfield. Secondly, I think the Phillies would have to eat a significant portion of the remaining money owed to Castellanos to move him, and even then wouldn't get much, if anything, that would help them this season. So why do it?
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this is a situation that can at least be managed for the rest of the season. At that point, the two sides can reevaluate. But if Castellanos is eventually traded, I wouldn't expect it to be for a significant player because most teams are going to view him as a DH.
Anthony SanFilippo: We need to stop overdramatizing small workplace disputes. This incident does not change anything regarding Castellanos and his place on the Phillies. Should the Phillies have traded Jimmy Rollins when Charlie Manuel benched him for not hustling?
Trading Castellanos at the deadline makes no sense to me as it would only create another hole in a glaringly weak outfield.
Castellanos is what he is, and while his numbers underperform his contract, he's a lot better than many alternatives. His OPS+ is still 106, which isn't All-Star material, but it's better than league average. It's also fourth-best on the Phillies this season and tops among all of their outfielders. His negative WAR is based solely on the fact that his range in the outfield is sorely below average. His offensive WAR (oWAR) is on pace to be about 2.0, which is an above average hitter in the majors.
Could the Phillies try to get out from under the final year of his contract in the offseason? Sure - if they're willing to eat 50-60% of the money. But you aren't doing that in season unless things are really untenable between him and the manager - and it doesn't seem like that's the case.
Bosses and employees don't always see eye-to-eye and may get into a heated exchange from time-to-time. It doesn't mean that they need to be permanently separated from each other.
