Apr 29, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher JosŽ Alvarado (46) reacts after striking out the side during the eighth inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images Eric Hartline
PHILADELPHIA — Dave Dombrowski didn't make any guarantees, but it sounds like there's a strong chance José Alvarado will be back with the Phillies in 2026.
When Dombrowski was initially asked Thursday about whether the team plans to exercise the $9 million club option on Alvarado for 2026 — which comes with a $500,000 buyout if declined — the president of baseball operations was non-committal.
"We'll wait to make that decision, announcement," Dombrowski said. "We have 'til five days after the World Series, so we'll wait on that."
However, when On Pattison's Anthony SanFilippo asked him about bullpen construction later on, Dombrowski dropped this nugget as part of a larger answer.
"...I'd be surprised, without making any announcements, if Alvarado's not back with us," Dombrowski said. "But we'll see what ends up happening."
Rob Thomson: “I’m bullish on the club. I’m really bullish on Alvarado too.”
(Via @TimKellySports) pic.twitter.com/fFS3a15lIM
When manager Rob Thomson held his year-end press conference following the conclusion of Dombrowski's, he also sounded hopeful that the Phillies would retain Alvarado.
"Tough year, it really was for him. In a lot of different ways," Thomson said. "But I think making sure that he's healthy going into the offseason kind of eased his mind, eased my mind.
"I think I'm bullish on the club. I'm really bullish on Alvarado too," Thomson continued. "I love him. I love his energy. I love his stuff. I think wherever he's at, he's gonna have a really good year next year."
So if both Dombrowski and Thomson want Alvarado to be back in 2026, why not just announce today that the club plans to pick up his option? There's a couple possibilities.
The first is that the Phillies do expect to exercise Alvarado's option, but won't do it until they have to five days after the World Series. That way if an unexpected injury or something else creeps up in the meantime, they aren't on the hook for $9 million.
The second is that the Phillies plan to decline Alvarado's option and sign him to a deal that even when you add in the $500,000 buyout would be less than $9 million total.
That second scenario seems less likely. Alvarado — who missed 80 games this year serving a performance-enhancing drug suspension — may feel like he owes the Phillies one, and frankly, he probably does. But the reality is that if he opts out and hits free agency, there will almost certainly be a team willing to pay him $9 million in 2026. There may even be a club that wants him badly enough to guarantee a second year or include an option for a second year with a hefty buyout. If the Phillies feel as good about Alvarado moving forward as they seemed to Thursday, they probably don't want to take the chance that he tests free agency if they decline his option.
It's true that guaranteeing $9 million to Alvarado would be a risk. He served a PED suspension this past year and ended the season on the injured list with a left forearm strain, although there are currently no lingering concerns regarding that injury. Still, he will pitch much of next season at age 31, and has a 4.00 ERA since the start of the 2024 season.
But you have to consider what the alternatives would be. Last offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays non-tendered Jordan Romano after an elbow injury limited him to only 15 appearances in 2024. Even with that profile, teams are so desperate for quality back-end relievers that the Phillies took a risk on him and gave him $8.5 million. Obviously, that blew up in their faces, as he posted an 8.23 ERA in what's sure to be his lone season in red pinstripes.
The point is, you aren't getting a sure thing for $9 million, or thereabouts, on a one-year deal in free agency. There's a chance the Phillies live to regret picking up Alvarado's $9 million option for 2025. But the best-case scenario of building an elite one-two punch in the bullpen with him and Jhoan Duran will probably be enough for them to roll the dice.
