Andrew Painter has struggled this season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. (Cheryl Pursell)
MILWAUKEE — As Aaron Nola was struggling for the Phillies against the Brewers Wednesday evening, No. 1 prospect Andrew Painter wasn't faring much better for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
In his latest Triple-A start, Painter allowed 10 hits and seven runs, six of which were earned, across 5 1/3 innings pitched. He struck out five batters, but also walked three.
Wednesday afternoon, Phillies' manager Rob Thomson relayed the reports he received on the most recent outing by the organization's top prospect.
“Basically the same type of stuff, but he did get 17 whiffs, so that was a good sign,” Thomson said. “The velocity was good. I didn’t see it this time, but just from the report, two walks in the first inning … a walk later on … kinda cruised for a bit. But, you know, it’s just a little bit of inconsistency with fastball command, and I think that’s normal.”
Parker Meadows smokes an RBI single off Andrew Painter to give the Mud Hens a 6-5 lead in the 6th. pic.twitter.com/MltSz1xCUP
— Tigers ML Report (@tigersMLreport) September 4, 2025
In his first season back after missing two years due to Tommy John surgery, Painter has now logged 109 innings between Single-A Clearwater and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. His ERA since joining the IronPigs in May is 5.62 over 20 outings. Between his growing pains at Triple-A and last weekend's addition of Walker Buehler, it seems extremely unlikely Painter joins the Phillies before this year is out.
So is there any thought of just shutting Painter down now?
“I haven’t heard that, no,” Thomson said.
With Zack Wheeler lost for the season and Mick Abel traded to the Minnesota Twins for Jhoan Duran, the Phillies might be hesitant to shut Painter down just from the sense of protecting depth. Buehler and Alan Rangel might be the next two arms on the list, but the Phillies are only an injury or two from having to consider promoting Painter just by default.
If you're looking for a positive development, Thomson has gotten good reports about how the 22-year-old has dealt with the first major on-field adversity of his career.
“I’ve heard good,” Thomson said. “There was a time earlier in the year that he was getting frustrated. And I’m sure there’s still some frustration there, because he’s always had a lot of success. But I think overall, he’s handled it well.”
There’s a really good chance Andrew Painter is just exhausted. His fastball velo is down slightly and he’s not really missing close in the first inning. He just established a career high in innings pitched at 104.2, and that’s after essentially two years of no pitching pic.twitter.com/SisAOvBCHk
While the numbers Painter has posted this year aren't ideal, Thomson did acknowledge that it can be valuable for pitchers to go through some struggles in the minors before they get to the majors, where no one goes without experiencing adversity.
When things are all said and done after this year, it will be fair to ask if the Phillies did a disservice to Painter by not better managing expectations for his first season since 2022. Specifically, president of baseball operations repeatedly said "July-ish" as when Painter could make his MLB debut. With Labor Day now in the rearview mirror, that projected timeline hasn't aged well.
When asked Wednesday if he thinks preseason expectations for Painter — who had never pitched at Triple-A and was coming off of Tommy John surgery — got a little too high, Thomson gave a candid answer.
“Well, I think everybody was excited about getting him back,” Thomson said. “But I think at the end of the day, you look back on it and you say, you know, first time going through this, it usually takes two years for a guy to come back. I think we can all look back and think, ‘man, probably should have expected this.’”
