Mar 28, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Philadelphia Flyers right wing Matvei Michkov (39) skates with the puck defended by Detroit Red Wings defenseman Albert Johansson (20) in the first period at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
There are two questions I have been getting asked a lot recently.
Why will the Flyers make the playoffs?
... and ...
Why won't the Flyers make the playoffs?
Both are fair questions. The whys are more complex and more detailed. There are varying reasons, and getting into them all in this space would result in me getting a lot of TL;DR responses.
However the why not, to me, is pretty cut and dry.
Special teams.
The Flyers are simply one of the worst teams collectively on special teams in hockey.
Flyers special teams continue to be their kyptonite. Never going to be a great team until they figure these issues out.
We already know about the power play. It ranks dead last in the NHL, with a 15.6% success rate. It was 30th in the league in 2024-25 and dead last in each of the three seasons prior.
Five years of a horrible power play tells you all you need to know about the team's lack of success.
But the penalty kill hasn't been great either. It is operating at 77.3%, which ranks 22nd in the NHL.
But the most telling statistic is the special teams plus/minus. To determine this number, you add up the number of power play and shorthanded goals you have scored and compare then tot he number of power play and shorthanded goals you have allowed.
The Flyers rank tied for 29th in the NHL at minus-21 (with the Seattle Kraken). The only teams behind them are the Los Angeles Kings (minus-22) and the Columbus Blue Jackets (minus-24).
Conversely, the best in the NHL is the Minnesota Wild, at plus-24.
That's a big difference.
Frankly, it's both amazing that the Flyers (and Kings) are currently in playoff spots in the final week of the season considering this level of ineptitude when it's not even strength hockey and also impressive.
That's because it's a great indicator at just how good the Flyers are at even strength. While the overall plus minus at even strength is a modest plus-4, that takes the season in totality.
If you look at their play at 5-on-5, especially in the last month, you see a great uptick.
According to NaturalStatTrick, the Flyers possession numbers have climbed significantly over the past month, and in turn, so has their expected goals at 5-on-5.
As you can see in the image above, their possession metrics reached a season low in the first game out of the Olympic break and has steadily improved to the point where their at currently at a season-high in Corsi percentage over the previous 10 games.
With more possession comes more opportunity, and in the following chart, you can see their expected goal percentage get a huge spike over the past month.
That is an indicator that they are dominating at 5-on-5. Play like that at even strength is usually reserved for the sport's best teams.
But the sport's best teams are also usually superb on special teams as well.
The Colorado Avalanche just locked up the President's trophy and while their power play ranking is curiously low (25th) considering the lethal talent on that team, they have the best penalty kill in the league.
But a team like Carolina, who is a puck possession and shot suppression monster at 5-on-5, is plus-23 in special teams goals. Not surprisingly, their magic number is three to clinch the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
The other teams who have surpassed the 100-point plateau are at least strong in one aspect of special teams, ranking in the top third of the league.
You need to be passable on special teams, and the Flyers have not been.
In their 6-3 loss to Detroit on Thursday, The Flyers were 1-for-6 on the power play, but also gave up a short-handed goal that negated their one score.
Meanwhile, the Red Wings scored three times on the power play, as the Flyers penalty kill had no answers.
Lose the special teams game 4-1, you are going to lose, no matter how well you play at even strength.
Special teams was the killer and, unfortunately, neither end of ST is very good right now. Flyers dominated 5-on-5 for the first 30 minutes of the game but just dug themselves too deep of a hole.
As the Flyers go into their final three games, they have to at least draw even on special teams over the three games. Winnipeg tries to play low event hockey. Carolina doesn't let you have the puck and Montreal plays at a breakneck pace.
It's three teams with three completely different styles of play, and the Flyers need to navigate that.
If they stay true to what's worked since the Olympic break at 5-on-5 they will be in every game and even have a good chance to win a couple of them.
But they can't take penalties and they need to find a way to cash on on the power play at a better clip when given the chance.
Otherwise, this fun march to playoff contention and the dream of ending a five-year playoff drought may end up falling agonizingly short.
