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The World Cup 2026 dark horses the bookies might be underpricing

England, Spain, Argentina, and France are the four names you'll hear most between now and June. They carry the pedigree, the squads, and the market confidence to back it up. But some of the most interesting stories heading into this summer's tournament have nothing to do with the frontrunners.

If you're looking at World Cup 2026 betting or simply trying to work out which teams are worth following over the next few months, these three nations deserve a closer look than most people are giving them.


Morocco

Morocco made history at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, becoming the first African nation to reach the semi-finals, knocking out Belgium, Spain, and Portugal along the way.

The Atlas Lions went through CAF qualifying without losing a single game, scoring 22 and conceding just twice across eight matches. Their squad is stacked with players who perform week in, week out at the top level of European football, such as Achraf Hakimi at Paris Saint-Germain, Brahim Diaz at Real Madrid, and Sofyan Amrabat.

They have been drawn into Group C with Brazil, Scotland, and Haiti. Getting out of that group is not a given, but if they do, they have already shown at the last tournament that they know exactly how to win the matches that matter. A semi-final run once is impressive, and backing it up with a near-perfect qualifying campaign suggests it was not a fluke. If you enjoy a football bet on teams with something to prove, Morocco have plenty going for them.


Japan

Japan have quietly become one of the more dangerous sides in international football. In 2022, they topped a group containing Germany and Spain, which at the time felt like a shock.

Since then, they have only improved. A 4-1 friendly win over Germany in 2023 underlined that the Qatar result was no fluke. They also beat Brazil in a friendly shortly before the 2026 draw, which is the kind of result that tends to shift how people think about a team. Their squad is now full of players from the top leagues, with Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma and Real Sociedad's Takefusa Kubo among the most exciting wide players in European football.

Japan have a history of raising their level at major tournaments. They reached the round of 16 in 2022, losing to Croatia only on penalties. They face the Netherlands in Group F, which is a tough opener, but Japan have shown they thrive when given a point to prove against big opposition.


USA

Host nations tend to outperform expectations, and there are good reasons for that. Playing in familiar stadiums, in front of home crowds, with travel between games already familiar to the players is a genuine advantage across a month-long tournament. History backs this up, too. In 1994, the last time the USA hosted, they reached the round of 16. France won it outright on home soil in 1998. South Korea reached the semi-finals in 2002. The pattern is consistent enough to take seriously.

But the USA bring more than just location to this one. Mauricio Pochettino [JP1] has built a squad with genuine European pedigree. Christian Pulisic is at the peak of his powers after a strong season at AC Milan. Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams are experienced, high-level midfielders. The USA will play all three group games on the West Coast, in Los Angeles and Seattle, which means consistent crowd noise and minimal disruption throughout the group stage.

They have been drawn in a favourable Group D alongside Paraguay, Australia, and a UEFA play-off winner. Reaching the quarter-finals would be realistic. Going further would not be the surprise it might once have been.


author

Chris Bates

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